When the PR slaps down the chief executive, something remarkable is going on in the Windows saga. All is not what it might seem, however
On Monday, Steve Ballmer - Microsoft's chief executive - spoke in Tokyo about what the company has for people (both users and investors) to look forward to. In the speech, for which the transcript is (for now, still) available on Microsoft's website, he looked forward to new forms of interaction with systems ("Today on a PC, it's file open, blah, blah, blah, respond, reply, forward. I can't just say to my device, 'get me ready for my trip to Tokyo'"), and then noted how quickly the ARM architecture had shifted into the mainstream ("Just think back three or four years ago and how quickly performance and size, and miniaturization and the move to ARM processors has happened").
And then he looked forward a little bit:
We're obviously hard at work on the next version of Windows. Windows 7 PCs will sell over 350 million units this year. We've done a lot in Windows 7 to improve customer satisfaction. We have a brand new user interface. We've added touch, and ink, and speech. And yet, as we look forward to the next generation of Windows systems, which will come out next year, there's a whole lot more coming. As we progress through the year, you ought to expect to hear a lot about Windows 8. Windows 8 slates, tablets, PCs, a variety of different form factors.
Wow! So that's Windows 8, announced by the chief executive as coming out next year - just what all the rumour sites have been saying for an age, and what Microsoft and Ballmer themselves hinted at during CES in January.
Except... on Wednesday, in a move that fits the literal description of "extraordinary", Microsoft's PR put out a statement saying that the chief executive made a "misstatement".
As the LA Times reports, an email from a Microsoft spokeswoman said:
It appears there was a misstatement. We are eagerly awaiting the next generation of Windows 7 hardware that will be available in the coming fiscal year. To date, we have yet to formally announce any timing or naming for the next version of Windows.
To which the blogosphere's reaction was: what?? Is it really possible that Microsoft's PR would slap down its chief executive?
Well, if you take it on face value, yes. But that's not what this is about. Instead, it's all about what spin doctors call "deniability". In other words: have some way to say that a leak isn't true.
What matters at the moment to Microsoft is driving adoption of Windows 7. The figures show that the ten-year-old Windows XP is still widely used, even despite the comparatively quick takeup of Windows 7 (which is certainly faster than with Vista, as we've shown).
But if corporate buyers know that Windows 8 is just around the corner, they will hold off on purchasing systems, because they'll want to see what the requirements of Windows 8 are, and how they should be planning their future upgrades.
And right now the last thing that Microsoft wants is for people to hold off buying PCs. It's business buyers who are keeping the PC market anything like afloat; as Microsoft's Bill Koefoed, its general manager for investor relations, said discussing its last quarterly results:
Now let me turn to the PC market. There are 3 trends we are observing. First, business PC growth was 9% this quarter. The business PC refresh cycle continues and is still in the early stages. Second, emerging markets continues to play a larger role in total PC shipment volume and now represent nearly half of all worldwide PC shipments.
Finally, the consumer PC market declined 8% as there are several dynamics at work, including a 40% decline in netbooks, broader consumer macroeconomics, increased competition for consumer spending and the strength of Windows 7 consumer PCs in the prior year. In total, we estimate the PC market declined 1% to 3% in the third quarter.
If Ballmer's words in Tokyo make even a few businesses put off buying PCs because they're interested to see what Windows 8 is like, things could turn ugly. (A reminder: Windows licensing generates slightly more than half of Microsoft's profits.) Depressing business sales is not what chief executives are meant to do.
(It's with "misstatements" like this in mind that the owner of one US hedge fund, Daivd Einhorn, called for Ballmer's head, saying the company had "floundered" under his 11-year leadership. So far though there's no sign of a shareholder or board revolt.)
So what's with the PR slapping down the chief executive? It's simple: it's a billboard so that Microsoft's sales teams can point to it and say, with a straight face, "Next version? No, we haven't announced any timing or naming for the next version of Windows. Look, it says so here. Anyway, about this Windows 7 upgrade contract..."
But the message you should take away? Windows 8 (or whatever it will be called) is coming next year. Steve Ballmer's the chief executive. And he knows what's going on.
Dido Joss Stone Majandra Delfino Maria Bello Jennifer Gareis
No comments:
Post a Comment